The Longest Hangover
The mobile industry’s post-Dot Com hangover is still far from over. Coleago explains why telecoms has become a capital-heavy utility and why regulators must rethink their approach to restore sustainable returns.
More than two decades after the Dot Com crash, the mobile industry in developed markets continues to suffer from structurally weak returns, despite rising data demand and ongoing investment. This paper examines how mobile telecoms has evolved from a high-growth, high-return sector into a capital-intensive utility that has consistently failed to earn its cost of capital.
Using long-term evidence from the UK and other mature markets, the analysis shows how flat revenues, declining real ARPUs, rising capital intensity and repeated spectrum investments have combined to depress returns on capital employed. While operators continue to deliver more capacity, higher speeds and wider coverage, much of the economic value created has accrued to consumers and digital service providers rather than network operators themselves.
The paper argues that current regulatory and competition frameworks are misaligned with the economic realities of a utility-like mobile sector. Without changes that allow operators to reduce capital intensity, earn higher returns, or access new revenue sources, the industry risks ongoing underinvestment and financial decline. It concludes that governments and regulators must fundamentally rethink their approach if the mobile industry is to remain sustainable and capable of supporting future digital growth.
Other insights
Spectrum Renewal: A Framework for Spectrum Valuation and Pricing
Mobile connectivity supports economic development, social participation and digital innovation across every modern economy. Yet the performance and resilience of this ecosystem depend on a scarce national asset – radio spectrum. As many countries approach key licence renewal milestones for the original IMT 4G spectrum bands that were issued 10 to 20 years ago, the question of how to value spectrum and how to determine an appropriate renewal price takes on increasing importance in the case where the spectrum is being renewed via an administrative or hybrid auction process.
Leveraging Terrestrial Mobile Spectrum for D2D capacity
This article was first published in the GTPRN 2026 Newsletter, February 2026. It provides a fresh perspective on the merits of leveraging terrestrial mobile spectrum for D2D capacity. Terrestrial mobile spectrum could be used to substantially increase D2D capacity precisely where it is needed the most given that in 90% of the globe’s surface there is no shortage of spectrum.
Navigating Spectrum Licence Renewal: Lessons from Australia
Australia’s spectrum licence renewal process shows how operators can align regulatory engagement with commercial strategy. This case study highlights Coleago’s role in helping Optus secure optimal outcomes, from evidence-based submissions to spectrum planning for 5G and 6G.
Tanzania’s 3.6 GHz Spectrum Auction: Key Insights and Lessons for Future 5G Awards
Tanzania’s recent 3.6 GHz spectrum auction marks a major step toward 5G, but its design choices raise important questions about efficiency and fairness. Coleago’s latest white paper reviews the TCRA auction and shares key lessons for regulators and operators shaping future 5G spectrum awards.
Implications of a Full Transition from DTT to IPTV in the UK by 2035
In May this year, Coleago published a report prepared for the UK Spectrum Policy Forum which provides a technical and strategic assessment of future options for use of the UHF band (470–694 MHz) in the United Kingdom beyond 2034.
The European 5G Fairytale
For years, European policymakers and telecom operators have touted the impressive figure: “89% 5G coverage of populated areas.” On paper, this paints a picture of near-ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity. Scratch the surface however, and the reality looks quite different.