Mobile Network, Spectrum, and Public Policy Outlook to 2030
The report is based on the Coleago report ‘Mobile Services, Spectrum and Network Evolution to 2025’ (March 2021), updated to align with the latest developments as well as with market projections to 2030. It provides a review for telecoms regulators and mobile operators of key global developments, insights, trends, and best international practices, to inform future spectrum policy and management as well as operator strategies.
We consider the evolution of mobile services and applications, of the adoption and consumption of mobile data services, and of mobile network capacity requirements ‒ projected to 2030, on a global and regional basis. Specifically, we explore the evolution of underlying demand, mobile network constraints (coverage and capacity gaps) and actual mobile data consumption.
The report considers the economic implications of the changing mobile landscape, both from a societal and an industry perspective. Taking account of the evolution of mobile networks and technology over the 2023-2030 period, we estimate spectrum demand for a sample of developed and emerging markets from a societal and operator perspective.
Coleago explores the implications for spectrum management best practice and spectrum pricing, focusing on the sustainability of the industry and of the socio-economic gains delivered by mobile communications.
Other insights
Spectrum Renewal: A Framework for Spectrum Valuation and Pricing
Mobile connectivity supports economic development, social participation and digital innovation across every modern economy. Yet the performance and resilience of this ecosystem depend on a scarce national asset – radio spectrum. As many countries approach key licence renewal milestones for the original IMT 4G spectrum bands that were issued 10 to 20 years ago, the question of how to value spectrum and how to determine an appropriate renewal price takes on increasing importance in the case where the spectrum is being renewed via an administrative or hybrid auction process.
Leveraging Terrestrial Mobile Spectrum for D2D capacity
This article was first published in the GTPRN 2026 Newsletter, February 2026. It provides a fresh perspective on the merits of leveraging terrestrial mobile spectrum for D2D capacity. Terrestrial mobile spectrum could be used to substantially increase D2D capacity precisely where it is needed the most given that in 90% of the globe’s surface there is no shortage of spectrum.
Navigating Spectrum Licence Renewal: Lessons from Australia
Australia’s spectrum licence renewal process shows how operators can align regulatory engagement with commercial strategy. This case study highlights Coleago’s role in helping Optus secure optimal outcomes, from evidence-based submissions to spectrum planning for 5G and 6G.
Tanzania’s 3.6 GHz Spectrum Auction: Key Insights and Lessons for Future 5G Awards
Tanzania’s recent 3.6 GHz spectrum auction marks a major step toward 5G, but its design choices raise important questions about efficiency and fairness. Coleago’s latest white paper reviews the TCRA auction and shares key lessons for regulators and operators shaping future 5G spectrum awards.
Implications of a Full Transition from DTT to IPTV in the UK by 2035
In May this year, Coleago published a report prepared for the UK Spectrum Policy Forum which provides a technical and strategic assessment of future options for use of the UHF band (470–694 MHz) in the United Kingdom beyond 2034.
The European 5G Fairytale
For years, European policymakers and telecom operators have touted the impressive figure: “89% 5G coverage of populated areas.” On paper, this paints a picture of near-ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity. Scratch the surface however, and the reality looks quite different.