Estimating Mid Bands Spectrum Needs for the 2025-30 Timeframe
This report, written by Coleago for the GSMA, provides a global analysis of spectrum needs to meet the 5G vision of providing ubiquitous high-speed wireless mobile connectivity and a user experience to match that of fixed networks.
Related insights
The vision for 5G revolves around ubiquitous high-speed wireless mobile connectivity, aligning with IMT-2020 requirements. The challenge lies in achieving a user experience akin to fixed networks, necessitating 100 Mbit/s downlink, 50 Mbit/s uplink, and supporting 1 million connections per km². To understand this challenge, we have modelled 5G mobile traffic demand and supply in 36 densely populated cities worldwide.
Key Insights:
Crucial Spectrum Needs
The analysis underscores the criticality of additional mid-band spectrum for 5G’s evolution. Without it, achieving guaranteed user data rates across urban areas, supporting smart city initiatives, and addressing climate change through technology becomes economically unfeasible.
Infrastructure Investments
Alongside spectrum allocation, substantial investments in advanced infrastructure like higher order MIMO base stations, small cells, and high bands are imperative to deliver the targeted user data rates.
Population Density Impact
Cities with densities exceeding 8,000 per km²—representing over 1.64 billion people globally—stand as focal points for the significance of mid-band spectrum allocation. This allocation would directly impact around 626 cities, spanning diverse ITU Regional groups.
Quantifying Spectrum Needs
The estimated mid band spectrum demand for 2025-2030 averages at 2,020 MHz across the examined cities. This allocation is vital for meeting the evolving communication and smart city needs.
Beyond Urban Areas
Spectrum allocation below 8,000 per km² yields benefits like reduced site density, faster broadband speeds, and cost efficiencies, and impacts both retail prices and overall power consumption.
Rural Connectivity Impact
For regions reliant on wireless connectivity, additional mid-band spectrum enables delivering fibre-like 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) to rural areas. This helps achieve rural broadband connectivity goals and significantly reduces costs compared to traditional fibre infrastructure.
Urban vs. Rural Infrastructure
Countries with robust urban broadband infrastructure benefit from 5G FWA solutions, lowering costs to connect remaining unconnected rural towns/villages. For instance, in Europe, it offers a substantial cost reduction compared to fibre-to-the-home, ensuring sustainable high-speed connectivity.
Transport Route Capacities
Major transport routes, including highways and railways, demand substantial capacity to cater to connected vehicles and smart road use cases, emphasising the necessity of 5G infrastructure beyond populated areas.
In summary
The allocation of additional mid band spectrum emerges as a crucial enabler for fulfilling 5G’s promises, especially in densely populated urban areas. Moreover, its impact extends beyond urban centres, influencing rural connectivity, cost efficiencies, and smart infrastructure development on a global scale.
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