Mobile Network, Spectrum, and Public Policy Outlook to 2030
The report is based on the Coleago report ‘Mobile Services, Spectrum and Network Evolution to 2025’ (March 2021), updated to align with the latest developments as well as with market projections to 2030. It provides a review for telecoms regulators and mobile operators of key global developments, insights, trends, and best international practices, to inform future spectrum policy and management as well as operator strategies.
We consider the evolution of mobile services and applications, of the adoption and consumption of mobile data services, and of mobile network capacity requirements ‒ projected to 2030, on a global and regional basis. Specifically, we explore the evolution of underlying demand, mobile network constraints (coverage and capacity gaps) and actual mobile data consumption.
The report considers the economic implications of the changing mobile landscape, both from a societal and an industry perspective. Taking account of the evolution of mobile networks and technology over the 2023-2030 period, we estimate spectrum demand for a sample of developed and emerging markets from a societal and operator perspective.
Coleago explores the implications for spectrum management best practice and spectrum pricing, focusing on the sustainability of the industry and of the socio-economic gains delivered by mobile communications.
Other insights
The Polish 700 and 800 MHz Spectrum Auction: Insights and Global Lessons
Poland’s final low-band spectrum auction marks a pivotal moment in Europe’s 5G rollout, offering key lessons in auction design, cross-border coordination, and strategic spectrum management.
The Case for Strategic Spectrum Renewal
As spectrum licences approach their expiry date, a strategic approach to spectrum renewal is crucial. Traditional presumption of renewal in favour of incumbents may no longer serve the industry’s needs. Instead, a more strategic approach to renewal can optimise spectrum assignments and improve spectral efficiency by up to 40%.
Best Practice Spectrum Management
The principles of best practice spectrum management are well established and their implementation can enhance the socio-economic value of spectrum and how much operators are prepared to pay to acquire new spectrum. Whilst most regulators in developed markets have adopted best practice, the same cannot be said for developing markets. Coleago recently studied the regulatory environments in 16 African markets and recorded the extent to which best practice had been adopted.
Learning From Best Practice Spectrum Management in Botswana
The Botswana Communications Regulatory Authority conducted a review of its spectrum management strategy to align with international best practice. The Authority was advised by Coleago and in this paper, Project Director Graham Friend highlights the lessons to be learned for other regulators in developing markets.
The End of Telecoms History? – Not Quite!
At the European 5G conference, Stefan Zehle highlighted that differences in mobile data usage across countries result from variations in price and network availability. While European policymakers celebrate 89% 5G coverage, gaps in both outdoor and indoor connectivity limit usage. William Webb’s prediction that data traffic will plateau at 20 GB per user per month by 2027 seems unlikely, given that top users already exceed 100 GB. To fully realise 5G’s potential, policymakers must address these coverage issues in a cost-effective manner.
Insights from a Strategic Spectrum Review
The mobile industry has accumulated a fragmented spectrum portfolio, consisting of various frequency bands that are sub-optimally allocated for modern technologies like 4G and 5G. As operators transition from legacy technologies such as 2G and 3G to newer, bandwidth-intensive solutions, the need for contiguous spectrum blocks has become critical.
