Mobile Network, Spectrum, and Public Policy Outlook to 2030
The report is based on the Coleago report ‘Mobile Services, Spectrum and Network Evolution to 2025’ (March 2021), updated to align with the latest developments as well as with market projections to 2030. It provides a review for telecoms regulators and mobile operators of key global developments, insights, trends, and best international practices, to inform future spectrum policy and management as well as operator strategies.
We consider the evolution of mobile services and applications, of the adoption and consumption of mobile data services, and of mobile network capacity requirements ‒ projected to 2030, on a global and regional basis. Specifically, we explore the evolution of underlying demand, mobile network constraints (coverage and capacity gaps) and actual mobile data consumption.
The report considers the economic implications of the changing mobile landscape, both from a societal and an industry perspective. Taking account of the evolution of mobile networks and technology over the 2023-2030 period, we estimate spectrum demand for a sample of developed and emerging markets from a societal and operator perspective.
Coleago explores the implications for spectrum management best practice and spectrum pricing, focusing on the sustainability of the industry and of the socio-economic gains delivered by mobile communications.
Other insights
Maximising Shareholder Value in Spectrum Auctions
Spectrum auctions, while common in the telecom industry, are complex and high-risk events that can significantly influence a company’s long-term performance. Missteps, especially vague auction objectives and poor valuation discipline, can lead to substantial destruction of shareholder value.
Spectrum and Regulatory Challenges Related to eVTOLS
Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft are poised to revolutionise urban mobility, with commercial operations expected to begin as early as 2025 and significant growth anticipated by the 2030s.
Future of the UHF Band after 2024: An Analysis of Options in the UK
Coleago Consulting in collaboration with its client, the UK Spectrum Policy Forum, has released a landmark report, “Future of the UHF Band After 2034,” setting out a detailed assessment of the United Kingdom’s Ultra High Frequency (UHF) spectrum landscape. The report looks at the industry trends and the critical trade-offs required to balance the needs of Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT), Mobile Communications, and Programme Making and Special Events (PMSE).
The Polish 700 and 800 MHz Spectrum Auction: Insights and Global Lessons
Poland’s final low-band spectrum auction marks a pivotal moment in Europe’s 5G rollout, offering key lessons in auction design, cross-border coordination, and strategic spectrum management.
The Case for Strategic Spectrum Renewal
As spectrum licences approach their expiry date, a strategic approach to spectrum renewal is crucial. Traditional presumption of renewal in favour of incumbents may no longer serve the industry’s needs. Instead, a more strategic approach to renewal can optimise spectrum assignments and improve spectral efficiency by up to 40%.
Best Practice Spectrum Management
The principles of best practice spectrum management are well established and their implementation can enhance the socio-economic value of spectrum and how much operators are prepared to pay to acquire new spectrum. Whilst most regulators in developed markets have adopted best practice, the same cannot be said for developing markets. Coleago recently studied the regulatory environments in 16 African markets and recorded the extent to which best practice had been adopted.