Mobile is a key driver of economic development, and true 5G will play a significant part in driving incremental value in the Consumer, Home and Business verticals:

–          Consumer: Ultrafast Mobility and Latency-sensitive applications;

–          Home: Fibre-like Fixed Wireless Access (FWA);

–          Business: Catalyst for Industry 4.0 and AI Integration;

–          5G will play an outsized role in enabling AI applications within EMs;

The net incremental benefits of true 5G are in the order of 1.1% of GDP. Spectrum policy is a key determinant of 5G outcomes: spectrum insufficiency, especially the lack of 3.5 GHz bandwidth, is a major barrier to true 5G and the high-performance benefits that wide band channels deliver. A wide band 5G channel of 100 MHz can generate 3.5x faster data speeds than a 40 MHz channel under equivalent % cell loading.

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Excessive spectrum prices can “kill the Golden Goose”: they either lead to unsold hence un-utilised spectrum, or they choke network investment by transferring scarce capital from the industry to the state. Ultimately, high spectrum fees have a disproportionate impact on consumer welfare.

While non-standalone (NSA) 5G is a pragmatic stepping stone, operators need to evolve to Standalone (SA) mode to exploit the full benefits of 5G. For example, true 5G could reduce network TCO by an amount equal to up to 11% of revenues in Egypt, one of the countries examined. In addition to high performance benefits, wide band assignments drove cost efficiency: TCO  per unit of capacity of a 100 MHz channel would be 45% of that for a 40 MHz channel. Vietnam is the positive example to emulate. Pakistan, which has adopted similar policies as Vietnam, is likely to overtake Egypt. In Egypt delays in making 3.5 GHz available and excessive spectrum prices put it at high risk of falling behind Pakistan, which has recently adopted similar spectrum policies to Vietnam. Significant lost opportunities are being risked across a range of emerging markets; Iraq and other Arab nations in particular would benefit from forward-looking spectrum and 5G policies, and could learn from the Egypt case study.